Year Ending, New Year Beginning

Year Ending, New Year Beginning

  • Quinn Arnau, Michael Fischer
  • 01/10/23

Loooking Back on 2022


With a combined 25 years in the business of real estate, we have learned to expect the unexpected. The 2022 Spring market was a perfect storm of market conditions, giving us a run on real estate that we haven’t seen in years. Low rates, low supply, high savings, and high optimism flooded home Buyers into the market and it was not common to see 20 or 30 showings on a listing in one day, lines around the block to see homes, and prices climbing well over asking price.

In one particularly creative moment, we noticed a Seller with Braves memorabilia throughout the house. In addition to our 15% over asking price offer, we included four premium seats to a Braves game in the future. Despite our best efforts, our Buyers did not get the house! Things always work out for the best, but it was a stressful time, with many sleepless nights for those in the market. We’re still unpacking those conditions to really understand the fast escalation.

Flash forward to late Summer and we see rates starting to climb and an abrupt slowdown that came almost as fast as the torrid Spring market arrived. Prices leveled out, supply started increasing, Buyers became more discerning, and Sellers opened up to negotiations once again. Things are almost looking normal again.

Through this all, Metro Atlanta still remains an incredibly desirable place to live and lay roots. Working with many folks moving into the Atlanta area from other states, they frequently cite the mild climate, good job market, great schools, accessible airport, quaint communities, relative affordability, and varied landscapes as reasons to come to our city. On December 13th, the National Association of REALTORS released a report identifying the Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Marietta corridor as the number one market to outperform other metro areas around the country.

This year, we’re pleased to present our first edition of the Fischer-Arnau Residential Real Estate Forecast. We will share our thoughts on the residential real estate market, analyze data, and provide information we’ve gathered on housing. These forecasts represent us collectively looking at many factors, to read the market in the upcoming year. While no forecast is infallible, there are key metrics to clue us into the direction we are going.

We extend our sincere appreciation to all those that supported our business in the past year and to those offering their insight and perspectives on the market in the coming year.
 

On to 2023

Let’s start with the facts. As we begin the year 2023 there will be more homes for sale than there were in January of 2022. Inventory levels for the FMLS (First Multiple Listing Service) which primarily serves the metropolitan Atlanta area are currently near levels last seen in the fourth quarter of 2020. Prices peaked in the early summer of 2022 to levels heretofore unseen with the average sales price of a home in the entire data area settling near $500,000. Early 2022 interest rates were hovering around 3% for a 30 year fixed rate mortgage which at a $500,000 price point represented roughly a $2700 monthly payment estimating for taxes and insurance which of course vary from area to area. Now at the end of 2022 that same house would cost a consumer about $3500 a month. Unsurprisingly this has led to a demand shock as buyers respond to an uncertain economy. So what will happen in 2023? 

So we know a few things. It now costs more to purchase a home. There are more homes for sale. Most people who bought homes before the pandemic have healthy equity in their homes. People still need to move as their families grow or they need access to the equity in their homes. What does this mean for 2023? Most experts feel that interest rates have mostly priced in hikes still to be made to the Federal Funds Rate. Rates peaked near 7% in November of 2022. Expect rates to stabilize between 6% and 7%. The main thing that consumers fear when making a large purchase is uncertainty. Even though homes may now be more expensive to purchase and mortgage rates are higher, those are both factors that a buyer can adjust to given quality information. What buyers and sellers do not want is to feel like they made a bad decision. As interest rates become more predictable buyers will respond by reentering the market. Those who understand this more quickly will enjoy a market with greater inventory and lower pressure than has existed for several years. While acquiring a home may now be more expensive it is also more likely that a given buyer can purchase the home that they want instead of settling given intense competition for scarce resources. 

So predictions? Interest rates stabilize. Prices begin to stabilize. Sellers will get over the fact that they didn’t sell at the peak of the market last summer and appreciate that they are likely to cash out or move significant equity into their next homes. While we all wish we could time the stock market perfectly we know that even in the much less complex transaction of acquiring stocks many factors are beyond our control. Once buyer and seller expectations begin to be more in line we will see a market similar to 2019-2020 where competition is still fierce for move in ready homes in sought after locations but homes which need some updating or renovation may sit on the market for a couple of months. Overall this represents our healthiest transactional market in a few years. 

Opportunity is always there. Whether your goal is to find a new home for your family, diversify your portfolio by investing in real estate or divesting assets with experts available to help you navigate the waters of the changing market you are one step ahead of your competition.

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